[spectre] Euro elections...

[Aliette Guibert]

Sent: Friday, June 11, 2004 2:24 PM
Subject: [RK] euroelezioni: apatia e xenofobia (ultimi sondaggi dal FT)

    European poll predicts big gains for sceptics
    By Raphael Minder and George Parker in Brussels and Jean Eaglesham in
London
    Last Updated: June 11 2004 12:13


    Europe's mammoth round of transnational elections in 25 countries
continued
on Friday with new opinion polls suggesting eurosceptic and nationalist
groups will gain ground in the enlarged European parliament.
As Irish and Czechs went to the polls on Friday, Britain and the
Netherlands were the first countries to vote on Thursday in the first wave
of European elections - involving 350m voters - which draw to a close on
Sunday evening.
    The latest EOS Gallup Europe poll suggests centre-right parties will
emerge
as the strongest political group in the parliament, with 265 seats, on the
back of a strong electoral performance in Germany and Poland, and to a
lesser extent, by the British Conservatives. But the poll, conducted for
the European parliament, suggests overtly eurosceptic and nationalist
parties could win at least 50 seats in the 732-seat assembly.
The overall turnout is predicted to be slightly higher than the 49.4 per
cent in 1999, boosted in part by an experiment in postal voting in the UK.
It would be the first rise since direct European elections started in 1979.
But, with only half of all voters expected to take part, eurosceptic
parties such as the United Kingdom Independence party - which wants British
withdrawal from the EU - are set for gains.
    Apathy is likely to be highest in new EU member states, despite the
novelty
of such elections, with forecasts of turnout rates of 25 per cent in
Slovakia, 26 per cent in the Czech Republic and 35 per cent in Poland.
Jens-Peter Bonde, Danish leader of the parliament's eurosceptic EDD group,
said he expected his group to swell from 18 to about 40 members, possibly
putting it in a pivotal position.
    Anti-immigration, far-right groups, including Belgium's Vlaams Blok and
the
French Front National, are also fighting on anti-EU platforms. Having
failed to close ranks over the past decade, they could now form their own
group.
    "We must expect in the next European parliament much stronger extremist
groups on both sides," said Günter Verheugen, the EU enlargement
commissioner. "Of course, these will be helped by low turnouts."
The poll finds the left in France and Spain is heading for a repeat of its
electoral victories in March, helping the Socialist group win 206 seats in
the new parliament.
    In Italy, the pollsters predict a win for the broad centre-left
political
group led by Romano Prodi, outgoing president of the European Commission.
However, the result could be influenced by this week's release of Italian
hostages in Iraq, which provided a last-minute boost for the government of
Silvio Berlusconi.
    Poland is expected to have one of the largest populist delegations in
the
new parliament, led by Self Defence, under the leadership of former pig
farmer Andrzej Lepper, and the right-wing League of Polish Families.
France's Front National, with five seats in the European parliament, was
penalised in the March regional elections by internal strife and unease
about the leadership of Jean-Marie Le Pen.
    But other far-right parties have continued to gain momentum, notably the
Vlaams Blok, which is seen overtaking the Liberals in Flanders though
recently condemned by a court because of its xenophobic message.


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