[spectre] Re: like a sore thumb eh

[rene beekman]

From: Rob van Kranenburg - earlier in this thread
> in bulgaria 94% of the young people want to leave the country

From: Rob van Kranenburg
> Dear Rene, Really? You think it is an absurd figure? You are so
> knowledgeable about Bulgaria? Hmm. Here are some figures from 2000:
[...]
> These figures are from a 2000 query: (Main results of the second phase
> from a targeted social research, conducted by the Agency for Social
> Analyses in 2000)
> http://www.asa-bg.netfirms.com/documents/quality_of_life.htm Now, I'm 
> so
> sorry rene you got me! I am wrong by 1 percent:
> http://www.sofiaecho.com/article/lost-youth/id_3567/catid_27 93 precent
> not 94

rob,
i admit that maths has never been my strong point, but i do think that 
i can read.
and i know how to use the find-feature in my browser.
neither way can i find either a figure of 93 or 94 referring to the 
percentage of those who "want to leave the country" in the report.
what i can find is this; (table 4 in the research you mention)

Q: If you find opportunity to live and work in better conditions are 
you willing to move to… (%)

A: …another town/village
Very willing: 17,8 %
Willing: 18.9%
Not willing: 26,0%
Not willing at all: 25,3%

B: …another European country
Very willing: 27,3%
Willing: 18,9%
Not willing: 23,2%
Not Willing at all: 23,3%

C: … outside Europe
Very willing: 23,3%
Willing: 14,9%
Not willing: 25,5%
Not willing at all: 26,0%

leaving aside the subtle but not insignificant difference between 
"willing to leave if you find opportunity to live and work in better 
conditions" and "want to leave the country", it seems to me that 
between 46,5% and 51,5% is "not willing" or even "not willing at all" 
to move anywhere, including a neighboring village...

please do show me the addition that adds up to either 93 or 94 percent.
The figure 93 seems to be only mentioned in the sofia echo editorial, 
not in the report itself, which only mentions the figures 44 and 38%.

btw the figures in the report, taking into account all the "if"s in the 
original question and against the background of the bulgarian people 
and local history, gives a much better and quite a different picture of 
the situation than your statement did.

these figures are from 2000 and are surely not the most recent ones 
that are available. however, i cannot be bothered to find them at this 
point as my gripe is with your obviously flawed citation.
a lot has changed since 2000. one indicator is birthrate. in the early 
90's during the worst economic period, it plummeted dramatically. at 
the moment, kindergartens are having more and more a hard time dealing 
with the increasing flow of 2 and 3 year olds. i see more and more 
people i know having a second or even a third child - which until 
recently was quite unique - sometimes many years after their last 
child. obviously people are having more and more confidence in life 
again, even though that doesn't mean they will stop bitching and 
moaning when the statistics lady comes around....


interestingly, if we continue reading the sofia echo editorial after 
the section you quoted, we find this:
"Again, if the poll is to be believed, there is some cause for hope.

It said that 48 per cent were prepared to return to Bulgaria after 
having made money abroad and eight per cent would return after having 
studied in the West."

which is something quite different from a blanket statement that "94% 
of the young people want to leave the country"


> Also you cannot vote for me Rene, I'm not into politics so my 
> reliability
> lies not in statistics.

did i mention voting?
i believe this was about arguments.
of the arguments that you used to build your case, this one i knew was 
flawed, making the rest of your argumentation a lot more questionable.

> From my Bugarian contacts I could even get a clearing on 95 or 96 
> percent whatever as there kids all want to leave or are leaving.

please do
and please also provide sources!

> If you have a problem with the statistic, take it up with them,

"There are three kinds of lies: Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics."
mark twain/benjamin disraeli/leonard h. courtney

and then there is maths - i still can't add up the figures to reach 
either 93 or 94

and last but not least, there is language and the not so subtle 
difference between "willing to leave [including moving within the 
country - rene] if you find opportunity to live and work in better 
conditions" and statements like "want to leave the country" or "all 
want to leave or are leaving"

rene